11 08 2005

There’s a buzz going about Iran. They’re close to having nuclear weapons. They’re a long way from having nuclear weapons. The people are restive under the restrictive rule of the mullahs. It’s a nation of religious fanatics. President Bush says we have no plans to invade Iran. We all know how much that means. Pat Buchanan says we do have plans to invade Iran. We don’t know how much THAT means.

Here’s what I think: the fact is that Iran sits on a big chunk of the world’s oil and a bigger chunk of its natural gas. The junta that is running America seems intent on seizing control of as much of the oil supply as they possibly can, and doesn’t seem fazed by the mess they have made in Iraq. In fact, I think it suits their purposes— I think the Bush junta wanted to create a tar baby that would suck up the energy and economy of the U.S. so that even if they screwed up so badly that they got voted out of power in spite of cheating on the elections, the hands of the new president would be tied.

I think they are planning to invade Iran—to manufacture a provocation one way or another, and at least use air strikes, if not ground forces, to take out major components of Iran’s nuclear power program and military establishment.

I think this will stir up a hornet’s nest that will make the current struggle in Iraq look like peace. Unlike Iraq, the Iranian government does have the support of a majority of its people, and there will be no lack of will to retaliate against the U.S. for whatever we do to them. The U.S. military has made plans for dealing with multiple terrorist strikes inside the U.S., and I think that is connected with their long-term, secret planning on Iran.

I think that the Cheney-Rove-Bush junta will create or allow terrorist strikes in the U.S. in order to create an excuse to declare martial law, or something like it, in the U.S. They have had enough of freedom of expression and of the press, thank you. Freedom to make money takes precedence for them, and for the rest of us it will have to do. When that happens, all of us who talk like I am talking or listen to those who say what I have to say will be traitors or enemy combatants or whatever the buzzword of the moment is, and we will be shut down, shut up, locked up, shot up, whatever it takes to stop that awful buzzing of conscience in the ears of the powerful.

Meanwhile, Iran is not so isolated as Iraq was before we picked it off. Russia has always supported Iranian independence from Western hegemony, and is not likely to sit by idly if the U.S. opens hostilities. India is collaborating with Iran on an oil pipeline, and the Chinese are one of Iran’s best customers. They will not be happy about U.S. designs on Iran, either—and don’t forget we owe the Chinese lots and lots and lots of money. They are essentially bankrolling our current adventure in Iraq. They might not be such enthusiastic financiers if Uncle Sam wants to take out one of their major oil suppliers.

The situation is rich with irony. The U.S. spent years backing Sadam Hussein as a counterweight to the Shi’ite theocracy in Iran, and now that we have occupied Iraq, it looks like the only government that could effectively replace us there is—a Shi’ite theocracy. More ironic still—until the US invasion of Iraq, a sizeable majority of Iranians were favorably disposed towards the US. Since the invasion, a candidate who wanted more accommodation with this country has lost a relatively free and fair election, and a candidate who favors a hard line towards the US and about Islamic law has been swept into power by a strong majority.

So, while the junta may view jumping off on Iran as a way to shut down domestic opposition while insuring a continuing lock on the world oil supply, they will almost certainly end up even further over their heads than they are already. Meanwhile, the environmental clock keeps ticking….

post script: and the environmental alarm went off: “KATRINA! RITA! KATRINA! RITA!” and maybe, just maybe, diverted the Bush junta from diving into this nightmare….




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